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§õ¤Ñ©R¦b®Ñ¤¤´£¨ì¤T¤Q¤TºØ°ò·þ±Ðªº¯îÂÕ¡A»{¬°¨º¬O¡uºë¯«©Ê¹G¨}¬°±@¡v¡A§õ¤Ñ©R¤£©¯¦a¸I¨ì¨º¨Ç²LÁ¡ªº¶Ç¹D¤H©M«H®{¡Aµ§ªÌ²`·P¿ò¾Ñ¡C§Æ±æ¦³´Â¤@¤é§õ¤Ñ©R¯à°÷¹J¤W¤ñ¸û¦³¤ô·Çªº°ò·þ±Ð¾ÇªÌ¡A¨Ò¦p§J¹p®æ ¡]William Lane Craig¡^¡B¥¬Äõ®x¥[¡]Alvin Plantinga¡^¡B³Á®æ¤Ò¡]Alister McGrath¡^¡C

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§õ¤Ñ©R©Ò»¡¦³ÂI¹³Ã¹¯À¡]B. Russell¡^»PÃh¼w®ü¡]A. N. Whitehead¡^ªº²z½×¡A¬ü°ê­õ¾Ç®a¥¬ªÖ«n¡]Hilary Putnam¡^©M«¶¦]¡]W. Quine¡^³£´¿¸g¥ý«á¤Ï»é¼Æ¾Ç´N¬OÅÞ¿è¡B¼Æ¾Ç°ò©óÅÞ¿è¡B©ÎªÌ¼Æ¾Ç¬ù´î¬°Å޿誺¨£¸Ñ¡C¤£¹L¡A§õ¤Ñ©R¨S¦³¸Ô²Ó°Q½×¥Lªº«äºû¯ßµ¸¡A®Ç¤H·Q­n¦^À³«K¦³ÂI§xÃø¡C

¤p§Ì¤£¤~¡A¬Û«H¦Û¤v¹ï¼Æ¾Ç©MÅ޿誺»{ÃѨS¦³§õ¤Ñ©R¨º»ò²`«p¡A¦ý¥H§Ú©Òª¾¡AÅÞ¿è©M¼Æ¾Ç¥¼¥²¬O¤Ñ¤U¶¡³Ì°íí¥i¾aªº¾Ç°Ý¡A¨Ò¦p´X¥G¹L¥h¤@­Ó¥@¬ö¡A©ÎµM²v±À½×¡]Probabilistic inference¡^¬O°ò©óÀW±K¾Ç¬£©ÎµM²v¡]Frequency school of probability¡^¡A¤@¤E¤E¤E¦~ Systatªºµo©úªÌÃQªÖ¥Í¡]Leo Wilkinson¡^³Õ¤h»â¾Éªº¬ã¨s¤p²Õ¡AÀË°Q¬O§_¦³¥²­n¦b¾Ç³N´Á¥Z¤¤¨ú½l³oºØ©ÎµM²v±À½×¤èªk¡F¦b´ú¶q¾Çªº½dÃ¥¤º¡A©ÔËæ¼Ò«¬¡]Rasch model¡^©M 2-parameter¡B3-parameter±Àºâ¥X¨Óªºµ²½×©¹©¹¤j¬Û³w®x¡A¨ì©³¨ººØ¤èªk³Ì°íí¥i¾a¡H¥i¿×¤H¨¥¤H®í¡CÁÙ¦³¡A Godel ´£¹L­Õ­Y¤@­Ó¼Æ¾Ç¤½²z¨t²Î¨ã¦³¬Û®e©Ê¡A¥ç§Y¬OµL¥Ù¬Þ©Ê¡A¨º»òµ´¤£¥i¯à¦b¸Ó¤½²z¨t²Î¤º³QÃÒ¹ê¡A³o¬O³\¦h¼Æ¾Ç®a©M­õ¾Ç®a©Ò¼ô±xªº¡C

¦¹¥~¡A¡i­õ¹D¦æªÌ¡j°Q½×¤FºtĶÅÞ¿è©MÂk¯ÇÅÞ¿è¡A¦ý¨S¦³´£¨ì»á¨ãª§Ä³©Êªº Modal logic ¤Î Abductive logic¡C¦Ó¥B¡A§Y¨Ï¬O¶Ç²ÎªºÂk¯ÇÅÞ¿è¡A¥d¯Ç¡]Carnap¡^½aºÉ¨ä²¦¥Íºë¤O«ØºcªºÂk¯ÇÅÞ¿è¨t²Î¡A¥ç³Q¤½»{¬°¨Ã¤£°íí¥i¾a¡C

§õ¤Ñ©R´£¹LÃþ¦üGodelªº¡uª½Ä±¥D¸q¡v©M´^ù´µ¡]Roger Penrose¡^ªº¡u¤HÃþ¶W¶V±Àºâ»¡¡v¡G¡uµý©ú¤]¤£¯àµL½a­Ë°h ¡K ³Ì«á¥u¯à¾ÌµÛ²z©Ê½á¯àª½±µ¬Ý¥X¨ä¬°½T·í¡C¡v¥i±¤¡A¦b¥¿¤å©MµùÄÀ¤¤§õ¤Ñ©R¨S¦³¶i¤@¨B¤Þ¦ù¬°¤°»ò¥Lªº½á¯à¥i¥Hª½±µ¬Ý¥X¦ó¬°½T·í¡C

§õ¤Ñ©R¤S«ü¥X¡G¡u§Ú¬Û«H¤H¦º¤F¥H«á³\¦h³£·|¸g¾ú©Ò¿×¡y¤¤³±¨­¡zªº¹Lµ{ ¡K ½ü廻¤§«á³q±`·|§Ñ°O«e¥Í ¡K ¡]³o¡^¤£¬O¹w³]¡A¬OÂ_©w¡C¡v¸Ó®Ñ¤¤¦³¤T­¶¯È°Q½×¡u¦A¥ÍÅÞ¿è¡v©M¡u¦A¥Í¼Æ¾Ç¡v¡A¦ýŪ§¹¤§«á¡Aµ§ªÌ¤´µM¤£²M·¡¬°¤°»ò¦b§õ¤Ñ©RªºÅÞ¿è©M¼Æ¾Ç¨t²Î¤¤¡A°ò·þ±Ðªº¯îÂÕ¬O¡uºë¯«©Ê¹G¨}¬°±@¡v¡A¦ý½ü廻¬OÂ_©w¦Ó¤£¬O¹w³]¡C

¥¿¦p¤W­±©Ò»¡¡A¡i­õ¹D¦æªÌ¡j¬O¤@³¡´¶¤Î©ÊµÛ§@¡A¤]³\§õ¤Ñ©RÁôÂõ۳\¦hºëÅPªº½×¾Ú¡A¦ý¬°¤F¾E´NŪªÌ¤ô¥­¦Ó¨S¦³´£¥X¨Ó¡C´X¦~«e§Ú¥D±iÀ³¸Ó±N³o¨Ç°Q½×©ñ¦b¾Ç³N¶é¦a¡B¨Ì·Ó¾Ç³N¨ó·|ªº³W®æ¥X©Û¡A¦n¹³¥v±K¤Ò¡]Quentin Smith¡^»P§J¹p®æª§½×¦t©zªº°_·½¡B¹Dª÷´µ¡]Richard Dawkins¡^»P³Á®æ¤ÒÅG½×¶i¤Æ½×¡B¯Á§B¡]Elliot Sober¡^»P¾H«k´µ°ò¡]William A. Dembski¡^ª§½×©ÎµM²v©M´¼¼z³]­p¡C¤£¹L¡A§õ¤Ñ©R¦h¦¸±j½Õ¡G²{¦b³\¦h¾Ç³N¬ã¨s¡B¾Ç³N·|ij¡B¾Ç³N´Á¥ZªºªF¦è³£¨S¦³¦h¤j·N¸q¡A¦ý¯Ê¥F¤F¤@®M¤j®a»{¦Pªº¹CÀ¸³W«h¡A¯u¥¿ªº¹ï¸Ü´NÅã±o¤Q¤À§xÃø¡C

¨º»ò¡A°ò·þ±Ð·|¥i¥H°µ¨Ç¤°»ò©O¡H¦b¦¹µ§ªÌ´£¥X¤@­Ó¤j胆ªººc·Q¡G³Ð¿ì¤@¥÷¨ã¦³°ê»Ú¾Ç³N¤ô¥­ªº´Á¥Z¡A³o´Á¥Z¨Ã¤£¥u¬O¯«¾Ç®a¤Ò¤l¦Û¹D¡A¦Ó¬O«i´±¦a¸ò¤£¦P¾Ç¬ìªº±Ð¥~¾ÇªÌ¹ï¸Ü¡C§ÚÁÙ¦³¥t¤@­Ó¦³Ãöªººc·Q¡G³Ð¿ì¥t¤@¥÷«D¯«¾Ç©Ê¾Ç³N´Á¥Z¡A´Á¥Z¤è°w¬O¥HªÀ·|¬ì¾Ç¤Î¨ä¥L¤èªk¡A«ÈÆ[¦a¬ã¨s°ò·þ±Ð©ÒÃöª`ªº¬FªvªÀ·|¸gÀÙ¤å¤ÆijÃD¡A¨Ò¦p¦P©ÊÅÊ¡B¥þ²y¤Æ¡B¾Ôª§»P©M¥­µ¥µ¥¡C

¦b³q«U´Á¥Z©M®ÑÄyùØ­±¡A­»´ä°ò·þ±Ð¨Ã¤£¯Ê¥F¥]§t³o¨ÇijÃDªº¤å³¹¡A¦ý½Ðª`·N¡A¨Ã¤£¬O¦b¤å³¹ùØ­±¤Þ­z«Ü¦h¸ê®Æ©ÎªÌ¥[¤WµùÄÀ¡A³o´Nºâ¬O¾Ç³N¬ã¨s¡A©Z¥Õ»¡¡A«Ü¦h§@ªÌ¦ü¥G¥u¬O«Å´­¬J©w²z©À¡A¦Ó¤£¬O¤½¥­¦a¹ï«Ý©Ò¦³¸ê®Æ¡C§Ú¦A±j½Õ¡G¨S¦³¤@®M¤j®a»{¦Pªº¹CÀ¸³W«h¡A¨Ò¦pª¼¥Ø¼f½Z¨î«×¡]Blind peer-review system¡^¡B³ø§i¸ê®Æ·Ç«h¡]¨Ò¦p¦b Structural equation modeling¤¤­n³ø§i©Ò¦³ parameters¡Bstandard errors¡Bdata non-normality¡Bmissing data¡K µ¥¡^¡A§Ú®£©È¥H«á§ó¦hªº©Ò¿×°Q½×¡A¥u·|²£¥Í¥O¤H±¡ºü¤õÃzªº¼ö¡B¦Ó¤£¬O·Ó«G¨Æ¥óªº¥ú¡]generates heat rather than light¡^¡C¤£¹L¡A¥H¤W©Ò»¡¥u¬OªÅ¤¤¼Ó»Õ¡A´Á±æ¦³¤Ñ¥i¥H¹Ú·Q¦¨¯u¡C

2006.1.19


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